Yonsei_dent2025-07-28

📉 MVRV Points to a Potential Cycle Peak — Late August May Be the Real Turning Point

Bitcoin is pushing toward $119k, but now is the time to recalibrate the market clock using on-chain signals — especially the 365DMA of the MVRV Ratio (🔵). This indicator has historically aligned closely with market cycle tops. Back in 2021, the MVRV 365DMA formed a double-top camel pattern — a peak followed by another six months later — just before the bear market began. That second peak effectively marked the turning point. Interestingly, the current 2025 cycle is tracing a similar structure, and applying the same 6-month interval suggests a potential top forming around September 10. This timing aligns well with broader market narratives, such as expectations for a possible Fed rate cut and shifts in macro sentiment. However, keep in mind that the MVRV 365DMA is a lagging indicator, meaning Bitcoin’s actual price peak and reversal may occur earlier — possibly by late August. 📌 In short, we’re entering a zone where optimism and caution must coexist. Let on-chain timing guide your strategy — now is the time to tighten risk management and stay nimble.