Kripto Mevsimi2025-05-07

Investors Are Taking Profits Aggressively — Are We Approaching a Local Top?

Bitcoin’s 7DMA Net Realized Profit/Loss has remained strongly positive since early 2024, reaching +$1B/day as BTC pushes toward all-time highs. Even after positive price action after March-April drop in 2025, profit taking is still aggresive. Maybe not like November-December 2024 but still high. This is historically consistent with late-stage bull market behavior — where profit-taking dominates, even as price continues to rise. If we look back at similar cycles (e.g. 2021), this phase often preceded a local top or sharp correction, especially when profit-taking stayed high and continuous. What’s Different This Time? Since spot ETFs launched in January 2024, market structure has changed — but investor psychology hasn’t. - Same behavior, bigger scale. -Profit-taking patterns still align with historical cycles, but the speed and volume are amplified. What to Watch For: - Sustained realized profits → Risk of correction increases - Drop in profit-taking → First signal of cycle transition - Volatility likely to rise short-term The signal is not calling a full macro top, but it’s flashing a local caution zone. As always: zoom out, and follow behavior — not just price.