AxelAdlerJr
Bitcoin is warming up ๐ฅ - 3 scenarios that could shape the next rally
As of today, the on-chain momentum is in the "start" rally zone (Ratio โ 0.8 / 80%). Let's examine three scenarios for the next six months: 1. Optimistic (Bull). If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds above it - the NUPL/MVRV metrics will show a new impulse and the price could reach $150-175K, repeating the cycle logic of 2017 and 2021. 2. Base Case (Consolidation). If the Ratio remains in the 0.8-1.0 range, the market will stay in a wide corridor of $90-110K: participants maintain positions but don't increase exposure. 3. Pessimistic (Correction). If the Ratio drops to 0.75+, short-term holders will begin to take profits, and the price could correct to $70-85K. Considering that a correction has already occurred, the first two scenarios are more likely. I'd like to remind you that each week I publish a detailed review on Substack, where I analyze not only on-chain data, but also macroeconomics, stocks, futures, and news from the past week, providing practical recommendations for Bitcoin. You can subscribe here: https://adlerinsight.com/ Good luck, AAJ