Crazzyblockk
Bitcoin Cost Basis Zones — Key Levels to Watch
In this chart, we’re tracking multiple on-chain Realized Price cohorts—Short-Term, Mid-Term, Long-Term, New Holders, 1–3Y Holders, and aggregate cost metrics like Realized Price and Balanced Price. 🔑 Key Observations: Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP): 📍 Currently at $91.5K — acts as major resistance. Short-term holders (usually 0–155 days) are the most reactive, and this level shows where recent buyers’ average cost lies. New Holders Cost Basis (approx. 1–3 months): 📍 Around $83.7K — currently the strongest support. This is a key zone as it reflects the cost basis of recent market participants, often leading short-term trend changes. 📉 Why These Levels Matter: Cost basis zones represent the average purchase price of different Bitcoin holder cohorts. When price interacts with these zones: A break above resistance like the STH RP suggests new bullish momentum — short-term holders are back in profit and less likely to sell. A break below support like New Holders RP suggests potential downside pressure, as recent buyers fall into losses and may capitulate. 🧰 Summary of Methodology: Each cost basis line (e.g., Short-Term RP, Long-Term RP) is calculated as the realized price of UTXOs held within a specific age band: Realized Price: Value of all UTXOs divided by the number of coins (a kind of average entry price). Segmented by holding time (e.g., short-term = <155 days, long-term = >155 days, new holders = 1–3 months). This allows us to see where cohorts are underwater or in profit, helping define dynamic support/resistance zones based on actual investor behavior — not just technical chart levels. 🧭 TL;DR: $91.5K = Resistance — STH RP (if flipped = bullish continuation). $83.7K = Support — New Holders RP (if lost = downside risk). Market structure heavily influenced by holder profitability zones — a breakout or breakdown from these areas will define the next trend direction.