Mignolet
btc whales haven't made their exit yet.
1. These whales exclude entities like mining pools and exchanges. In other words, they represent the most accurate reflection of actual accumulation and distribution behavior on-chain, closely tied to real trading activity. Historically, this metric has shown strong correlation with price movements. Of course, as with other on-chain cycle data, the degree of correlation can vary in detail, especially in the short term. 2. Did whales exit the cycle at last year’s peak? If they had, we’d expect to see continued profit-taking at local highs, as seen in the red pattern labeled “1”, and consistent distribution even during subsequent rebounds like the one in zone “2”. (See Image 2) 3. But what’s happening now? They're accumulating again. (Image 2, green box) More specifically, the current behavior resembles the accumulation we saw during the sideways market in August–September of last year. (See Image 3) But isn’t there a potential economic crisis brewing due to Trump’s tariff policy? Yes, and notably, these whales did exit ahead of the 2020 COVID pandemic crash. Their distribution preceded a sharp drop in price. (Image 4, red box) But now? They haven’t exited. What we’re seeing is likely just a correction within an ongoing bull cycle—albeit a sharp one—not a structural crisis triggering whale-level exits. I continue to emphasize the difference between a sudden, unexpected crisis and one that is known and potentially engineered. That distinction shapes the market’s reaction and the behavior of long-term holders like whales. Because this time, unlike in the past, they haven’t exited, I believe my thesis remains valid: this is a manufactured crisis, not a real one. 4. Once this fake crisis resolves, both the Fed and China will have no choice but to resume QE. After gold, the next major beneficiary of this liquidity wave will be Bitcoin.