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A Study of Bitcoin’s Quarterly Performance:
When analyzing Bitcoin’s economic impact, examining its quarterly performance can provide a more dynamic financial outlook. For this reason, today’s metric calculates the changes in Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap over each quarter. But how does this metric help, and what insights can we extract from it? Typically, the fluctuations in Bitcoin’s market value and its realized cap, which is one of the most fundamental valuation tools, generate the most significant long-term economic data. This concept applies to the present metric as well. If we look back at Bitcoin’s performance throughout its history, comparing these two parameters during each time period has provided key signals for both bullish and bearish trends. For instance, whenever the percentage and dollar growth of the market cap outpaced the realized cap, it often created strong incentives for widespread selling pressure, marking the onset of bear markets. The reverse also holds true. During bear markets, when market cap plummets but the realized cap holds relatively steady or rises, Bitcoin has often found its potential bottoms. What about the current situation? At present, the Bitcoin market resembles the boom of 2021, where a rapid surge has created significant selling pressure. Consequently, we can interpret that without the ability to sustain the current levels and with the continued rise of the realized cap, a major price correction may be looming.