BinhDang
1 Year Change - From Plankton to Fish Addresses
Since BTC began surging in early 2024, much debate has arisen about whether retail investors and newcomers have re-entered the market. The answer, however, is nuanced. By analyzing specific data, we can gain a clearer picture. Let's focus on the yearly changes in Bitcoin addresses holding varying amounts, categorized as follows: Plankton addresses holding >0 & <=0.1 BTC Shrimp addresses holding >0.1 & <1 BTC Addresses holding exactly 1 BTC Crab addresses holding >1 & <10 BTC Fish addresses holding >=10 & <100 BTC I've deliberately chosen these smaller groups rather than larger ones (like Dolphin, Shark, Whale, or Humpback) because the latter often represent exchanges, custodial wallets, or cold storage, which tend to show fluctuations that are difficult to track. In contrast, the smaller groups give us a more accurate reflection of the general market and sentiment. If we look back at previous cycles, Bitcoin's price increases have typically coincided with a steady rise in the number of addresses belonging to these retail groups, particularly during peak periods. This pattern also highlights the extent of FOMO that drives market behavior during these times. The rise in these group addresses in the current cycle suggests that retail participation is indeed present. However, the growth is weaker and more uneven than in previous cycles, especially during market rallies. This is understandable, given that global monetary flows have generally declined over the past three years. So, the data suggests that future FOMO waves are still possible in this cycle. The most noticeable trend appears in the Plankton chart (holding >0 and = 0.1 Bitcoin). As BTC's price rises, newbies tend to invest in tiny amounts. From the start of 2023 to now, the growth in this group's address number has been negligible, especially compared to the surges of the previous two cycles. Based on these observations, I conclude there is still a basis to look forward to a final wave in this cycle.