SignalQuant2024-04-19

🤷‍♂️Why did the previous #BTC's long-term cyclical pattern break down?

Looking at on-chain data that combines #BTC price and the number of addresses with a value of $1M or more, as well as #BTC halving and the U.S. election timing, we can draw the following conclusions. 1) In addition to the halving event, which halved the supply of #BTC, the U.S. election event, which triggered the money-printing, also triggered the bull crypto market rally 2) And the bull run occurred after both events, each time creating a new wealth explosion and the new crypto-rich 3) Interestingly, in this cycle, the bull run started months before the halving —— It is clear that the cycle has been distorted by certain events, and the distortions are as follows. The first cycle distortion is 'the U.S. #BTC futures ETF effect'. As on-chain analysts shows, the top of the bull cycle in 2021 was $65,000 in April '21 based on various on-chain metrics. However, in terms of price, the peak of the bull cycle in 2021 was $69,000 in November 2021. The November 2021 peak was distorted by a specific event, and that event was the U.S. #BTC futures ETF effect, which artificially created a huge bounce in the price. The second cycle distortion is 'the U.S. #BTC spot ETF effect'. The past cycles were dominated by 'halving first and then bull run' narrative. But that narrative has been broken this time. In other words, the U.S. #BTC futures & spot ETFs have been so influential that they have distorted cycle even in the long-term, and the traditional cycle may not explain much of the cycle flow. Given these factors, the U.S. #BTC futures & spot ETFs are key players in the market, and their activities can dilute and distort halving effects. —— In conclusion, the impact of such distorting factors is too large to be analyzed based on the traditional cycle narrative. It means that "only investors who actively reflect the traditional cycle perspective + distorting factors can successfully analyze and invest in the end.