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Deviation rate between BTC PRICE and Realized Price UTXO AGE BANDS
When will the price adjustment occur and how will the ceiling zone be reached? These are topics of great interest to us at the moment. It is a well-known fact that the price of BTC has been rising due to expectations for the approval of an ETF for BTC and ”HALVING” that is expected to arrive in April of this year. As these fundamentals are factored into the price, a divergence between the current BTC price and the Realized Price - UTXO Age Bands will occur. While we could draw the rate of divergence on a graph, we have created a document that will help you identify price adjustments and ceiling areas by looking at ”Deviation rate between BTC PRICE and Realized Price UTXO AGE BANDS” and ”BTC price RSI" The table is colored intuitively like a HEAT MAP. By judging the difference between the TOP and the current price, it is possible to determine that the price is not yet in the ceiling zone. However, it is the ATH of November 2021 that troubles us the most. The area marked with an asterisk (*). The price here seems to have been made by CME. We also believe that the current price increase is also price formed by the CME. The basis is the CME's Open Interest. (From Coinglass below) CME Open Interest 5.46B as of October 26, 2021 As of January 4, 2024 5.42B The CME Open Interest on October 26, 2021 and today are almost the same level. Therefore, it can be judged that the divergence in the * area is as heated this time as it was on October 26, 2021. So, is now the ceiling area? Perhaps we should pay close attention to the price movement from the previous day when we know whether or not the ETF approval will be granted, and next we will be interested in the rate of decline after the price adjustment with a temporary top before ”HALVING”