Tomáš Hančar
Miner's have been accumulating, their flows to derivatives exchanges was a deception, not hedging or directional bets
Contrary to some on-chain analysts' opinions, the miners have not been selling, likely not even "hedging", the "Miner to derivatives exchanges flows" chart was skewed by AntPool's efforts to trick us into thinking there's "selling pressure" from Miners. Let's have a look at the charts: 1/ First, the chart this QuickTake is linked to "by default" ("Go to live chart now") button (screenshot #1): Mid-June to 22nd-23rd Jul AntPool has been sending ₿ back & forth to Binance & back to themselves, which some interpreted as "hedging" (myself, got played, too) or even "selling"/"speculative" directional bets. From 23rd Jul onwards, only the flows from exchanges to AntPool has remained active 2/ Secondly, a closer look at the Block resolution (screenshot #2) clearly says that it's been an algorithmic activity, clips of ₿100 - ₿150 had been being sent back & forth as per the date & time delineated above (1st 4 - 5 days it was actually clips of ₿200), then between 22nd-23rd Jul, the AntPool to exchanges flows cease, however, their total inflows & outflows remained intact, as did their inflows from Binance. In other words, they chose to avoid triggering the "miner to exchange flow" metric by using an intermediate address, we've seen this before (See IT Tech's Quick Take from May 18th). 3/ Overall, All miners have been accumulating since 20th Jun (they probably followed AntPool's activity, screenshot #3) 4/ Miner to xchg flows chart for reference (screenshot #4) Summary: Overall, Miners have accumulated ~₿4060 / past 48 days AntPool accumulated ~₿1020 / past 52 days Conclusions: 1. "what do the miners (AntPool in particular) know that we don't" is a valid question 2. In the Big Picture the amounts of ₿ we're talking about here may not be "staggering", but is a telltale sign of current miners' sentiment nonetheless Charts References: Screenshot #2 - https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/sw1VLRpl7Yf98 Screenshot #3 - https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/mhxRssHUyI9YJrk