BaroVirtual
New buyers marked the bottom of BTC in November 2022 as they had more robust demand for a lower-cost basis.
On November 9, 2022, there was a bearish crossover between UTXO Age Bands 6m-12m and UTXO Age Bands 12m-18m. Still, from the point of view of on-chain analysis, this bearish cross is the opposite phenomenon; that is, it is actually an early bullish signal. This is because new buyers had a more robust demand for a lower-cost basis, which means that Bitcoin has reached the bottom or is as close as possible to it. Usually, this helps to support the price of Bitcoin. After that, a local or global uptrend of Bitcoin begins. But there is one important point here. When the UTXO Age Bands 12m-18m reaches a conditional visual peak and begins to decline steadily, but at the same time, the price of Bitcoin continues to grow, and medium-term bearish risks start to accrue. This is followed by the setting up a local or global Bitcoin peak, and a sell-off occurs. This has been observed for about the last 4 years. Besides, Bitcoin lives in 4-year cycles from one halving to another. An even year is a bear, and an odd year is a bull. Therefore, 2023 is bullish, but the 2nd uptrend in the cycle is always weaker than the 1st; that is, the previous historical high is not updated. Now there is a 2nd uptrend. So, based on the above, we can assume that for some time, the overheating (overbought) of Bitcoin will increase, and the price will continue to grow. And Bitcoin could reach $30,000-$33,000 or $37,000-$40,000, and then there would be a massive sell-off.