BaroVirtual2023-03-02

Will Bitcoin repeat the scenario of April 6, 2019 - June 26, 2019?

On 29 Jan '23, the MVRV Ratio Index broke its 365-day MA, and at the moment, the MVRV movement resembles the period 6 Apr '19 - 25 Apr '19. This suggests that BTC may, in a peculiar way, given the current market conditions, repeat the scenario of 6 Apr '19 - 26 Jun '19. In this configuration, it is quite possible that before May-June 2023, Bitcoin can reach the $30,000-$37,000 range. Why exactly until May-June can BTC get a respite? Firstly, the US Treasury's $550B plan for massive borrowing in Q4 2022 failed as expected. This was because, in December 2022, the Fed put on the brakes regarding sales (Treasuries and MBS). Respectively there was a gap between the sales plan and actual sales, which ultimately led to the release of almost $200B into the market. This situation can't continue for a long time, as the cash from the US Treasury is depleted, and soon, they will have to borrow anyway. Secondly, the above indicates the validity of expectations regarding the fact that in May-June, the US will begin to enter a recession, and Bitcoin, in turn, may become a hostage to global negative macro trends, including deterioration in the stock market, given its correlation with Benchmark Indices at critical moments.