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How large transfers from Coinbase could impact the Bitcoin price?
When a large number of transfers are made from the Coinbase exchange, which serves a significant portion of the American market, to futures exchanges, it can lead to movement in the Bitcoin price. Looking at history, peaks in transfers coincided with the beginning of the bull cycle in 2020 and the Luna crash in 2022. The latest surge in transfers occurred in November 2022 after the FTX crash. Is the November surge the beginning of the bull cycle? Most likely, it became clear after the FTX crash that the BTC price could not fall any further due to psychological factors, rather than a set of metrics that had not yet signaled the end of the bear cycle. The final rise in price began after the new year when sellers were completely exhausted at the 16,5K level. It is important to note that predicting the Bitcoin price is a complex process that depends on many factors. While a sharp rise in transfers from Coinbase to futures exchanges may indicate increased volatility, it is not a guarantee of future price movement. Follow 👀 my Twitter account where I publish macro reports on the state of the Bitcoin market.