Chartoday2022-11-04

The ‘on-chain moving averages’ show more bearish signals

To start, these ‘on-chain moving averages’ mentioned in the title are nothing more that realised price sorted by age UTXOs. Realised price consists the result of weighing each coin at the rate it was last transferred (it represents an idea of the value that the market assumes) and UTXOs are what compose the age categories. Here’s how BTC has been reacting to the 1W and 1M bands throughout the last two cycles (this applies to bull and bear, although I’m exemplifying the latter): Drop: in this first/last phase, bitcoin just maintains below both of the bands and crashes (quite) violently. 1M is above 1W due to the bearish momentum First consolidation: BTC goes above the 1W and the initial low isn’t broken. If the low does break (like in May) then the consolidation is invalid and structure goes back to phase 1. Range peak/reversal: the 1M band is broken, and this is the moment to decide whether the range tops out or there’s a continued reversal. [CONTINUATION IN COMMENTS]