BinhDang2022-09-05

The percentage of supply in loss is already equal to the black swan event of 2020, but...

Based on the 30-day and 90-day moving averages as the percentage of supply in loss (PnL), 30DMA's data has been equal to the black swan event reaching 46%. And even 90DMA's data now is 44%, which is higher than at that moment. However, compared to the previous three cycles' declines, we may still have to wait for the last few percentage points before reaching the finish line. With the overview data, the lowest price of Bitcoin was always in the area where the loss percentage reached 50% or more. - First cycle: Approx. 51% - Second cycle: 50%-56% - Third cycle: 50-57% Based on Realized Price of all four cycles and UTxO Realized Price Age Distribution (1y - 1.5y) of the last three cycles, including the present. We are clearly at the bottom zone; however, a race to the finish line with the lowest price is always a time of skepticism and difficulty. These last few percentages are often inversely proportional to the volume who quit the game.