Chartoday2022-05-12

Price broke out but funding is neutral: more downside to come?

I do have to mention first the fact that I haven’t published anything in the last almost two weeks. It hasn’t been because of the breakout Bitcoin has had, but there have been a few real life situations that made me take a step back from writing. Anyway, I hope I can keep publishing every day from now on. So let’s start with the actual analysis. As I’ve said, BTC did break below $30k, something that I didn’t even think about to be honest. Funding is still neutral (sitting around 0.01%), and it’s concerning me as it means we’re not in middle of a capitulation. What I think for the next few weeks/months is that we need to see a proper capitulation (maybe below $20k, anything can happen in a bear market) or a temporary consolidation and a relief rally, which will be followed by a continuation of the downtrend. However, I believe I summarised the present situation briefly. I didn’t talk about the current drama with Terra and the UST de-peg, but I’ll probably mention it in a future artic