BytQuant2022-01-22

Bottom 19K - Most probably 28-29K to come

-Head and shoulders pattern confirmed weekly => btc price < 39K) -Fake wall of shorts orders at 39-40K => new resistance to be monitored because these are FAKE orders (could be removed). -Leverage ratio still too high -MVRV 1.5 is low but too early to buy : DON'T BUY just now. -SP500 and NASDAQ in a very bad shape. More dips to come in the future. SCENARIOS: -Realistic scenario (my 'favorite'): Further liquidations to most probably to come => 28 to 35K -Pessimistic scenario (possible if people are panicking/capitulating): bottom MA 200 Weekly in between 19-20K. Historically MA weekly reached in march 2020, dec 2018, 2015 (3 times) and never went below 200 MA for a long time. -Optimistic scenario (not the one i foresee): aggregated spreads on derivatives markets are positive, investors are optimistic it could go back up from now. I think they are wrong and market will follow the order book + fake orders resistance at 39K. RECOMMENDATION Longs should HODL. Shorts have an option.