Spirit Jonber Kim2022-01-22

Stock market-related declines are exposing the limitations of onchain data.

Fig 1) The current fund flow ratio is close to its lowest level since 2017. Exchange flows occupy only a small portion of the liquidity in the network, and it is difficult to understand the intention of the big hand rearrangement outside the market. It is also related to the insignificant impact of exchange in/outflows. Fig 2) We cannot expect the high leverage of the market to decrease despite of price drop. Open interests remaining in the market is mainly handled by big and smart hands. Therefore, the usefulness of data other than exchange internal values is decreasing. Fig 3) Among stablecoins, USDC's Top10 outflow appeared frequently with the decline of this cycle. Stablecoin Top10 outflow also appears significantly at the 'end of the decline', so it often implies an inflection point. But now continuous outflow high value is more related to the progress of the decline. So paying attention to this value to judge whether the decline continues or not can be an approach.