Short term holders are increasingly selling/moving their Bitcoin at a loss as the short term holder SOPR suggests 

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On the Bitcoin price crash yesterday, the short term holder SOPR has been dropping further into negative territory to levels last seen in July. This means coins by short term holders have been increasingly sold/moved at a loss. We seem to be approaching levels where short term holders are capitulating. Is this the final capitulation before another leg up? 

Scenario 1:  Sideways move of price for some time, same as after short term SOPR drop in May
Scenario 2: Final capitulation before another leg up of Bitcoin's price as in July

I think we are closer to scenario two or, if at all, a shorter scenario one as structurally Bitcoin is sitting on different on-chain fundamentals today than in May.  For instance, more Bitcoin in the hands of long term holders, hashrate migration more or less completed etc.