CoinNiel2026-09-24

Bitcoin Shows Encouraging Signs, but Recovery Remains Unconfirmed

Bitcoin’s exchange outflows and easing funding offer encouraging signs, but a renewed uptrend remains unconfirmed. Exchanges recorded net outflows of 12,153 BTC over September 17–23, reversing the previous week’s 6,142 BTC inflow. However, September 22 alone accounted for 19,105 BTC in outflows, so withdrawals were not consistently dominant. Exchange reserves fell 1.03%, from 2.726 million BTC on September 21 to 2.698 million on September 24. This reflects the same outflow trend, although withdrawals do not necessarily mean new buying. Average funding rose from 0.00662% to 0.00777% across the two weeks, before easing to 0.00570% on September 24. Recent readings suggest lower costs for maintaining long positions. Open interest dropped 10.4%, from $29.34 billion on September 21 to $26.29 billion on September 24. Dollar-denominated values also reflect price changes, so this cannot be attributed entirely to deleveraging; all September 24 figures remain provisional. My view is neutral with some encouraging developments, but stronger spot buying remains unconfirmed. Renewed exchange inflows alongside rapidly rising funding and open interest would weaken this cautiously constructive assessment. Exchange reserves have declined. Funding and open interest have eased from recent highs. These changes alone do not confirm a bullish reversal. Next, I will watch whether outflows persist after September 24 data are finalized. Funding stability, open interest’s direction, and evidence of spot buying will help assess whether these improvements can support a recovery.