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Short-term holders return to realizing losses after 4 months
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for short-term holders (STH), smoothed with a 30-day moving average, reveals a crucial point in the current Bitcoin cycle. After four months of consistently operating above the break-even line (1), the indicator has once again signaled that short-term investors are realizing/spending at a loss. This change is significant, as it indicates a momentary loss of confidence on the part of speculators, who are generally more sensitive to price fluctuations. There is a significant divergence: while the price of Bitcoin jumped from $60,000 to around $125,000 over the past year, the SOPR STH remained at descending peaks, without the typical explosion that marks phases of euphoria. In past cycles, such sharp upward movements were usually accompanied by peaks in the Extreme Greed region or very close to it, showing strong retail participation. This time, this exuberance did not manifest itself, reinforcing the idea that the rise was sustained by more robust and possibly institutional investors. Historically, market tops have only been confirmed when the SOPR STH reached levels of extreme greed — something that did not occur in this rally. This absence suggests that the long-term trend remains intact, and the current realization of losses may represent only a healthy pause within a larger bullish cycle. If the price finds solid support and the SOPR returns to above 1, the probability of a continued uptrend strengthens, with the market possibly targeting new highs before any significant exhaustion.