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This time, the source of the Bitcoin rally is not retail — the big players are in the driver’s seat.
This time, the source of the Bitcoin rally is not retail — the big players are in the driver’s seat. While retail investors are selling, institutional and large investors continue to accumulate. 1⃣ On-Chain Data As Bitcoin is priced around 117K, on-chain data clearly shows that this rally is not a classic “retail investor frenzy.” The behavior of different investor segments reveals why this cycle is diverging from the previous ones. Since early 2023, retail investors have been selling BTC. Charts show a consistent decline in holdings by this group. At this point, retail accumulation has turned significantly negative. In contrast, a clear accumulation trend began in early 2024, led by large investors. Most likely, institutions, funds, or high-volume wallets (ETFs) have aggressively started accumulating BTC. This indicates that long-term and high-confidence positions are being taken. 2⃣ Google Trends Google Trends data paints an interesting picture. Searches for “Bitcoin” are not at their lowest in the past 5 years, but they are still quite muted. So there is no retail FOMO or hype at this point. The crowd has not awakened yet. This cycle looks nothing like the madness of 2021. There is no mass euphoria, nor is social media overflowing. Quiet and smart money is currently on stage — and most people are still watching from the sidelines. ✅Conclusion If retail investors have not yet entered the stage, the road ahead may still be open. But once they do show up, the train might already be approaching its final stop. I’ll continue tracking this through data, with alerts turned on. If there’s a shift, you’ll be the first to know. Thanks for reading 🙏