BTC - Finding the Bottom from aSOPR Perspective

BTC-Finding-the-Bottom-from-aSOPR-Perspective

“Has BTC hit the bottom?” is probably the main concern of on-chain analysis. Let's take a quick look at the aSOPR indicator and compare it to the bottom of past bear markets.

The EMA Cross technique proposed by MAC_D was used in the analysis.
The common features of the bottom🟨 of the 2015 & 2018 cycle include:

  ① aSOPR rises after hitting a cycle low (🔴red arrow)
  ② Both EMA 50 and EMA 100 recorded cycle lows
  ③ EMA 100 trough levels coincide (⚫ lower dotted line)
  ④ Turn to bull market after EMA 50 ↔ 100 Golden Cross

Currently, BTC is in line with ①, and it seems that the EMA Golden Cross is about to happen.

⚠️However, since the EMA100 trough has yet to reach the 2015 and 2018 levels (🟥 red box), there is still a possibility of experiencing an additional drop.
The recovery period of aSOPR 🟨 is also half of what it used to be.

🔔You should keep in mind that BTC may experience one more drop.

**"aSOPR" is a SOPR indicator that excludes UTXO transactions within 1 hour.