Accumulation or re-distribution? - pick your poison!

Accumulation-or-re-distribution-pick-your-poison

Studying past bottoms in terms of realized price & how long we spent below it in the accumulation phase yields these results:

2012 - 114 days below, 190 days of subsequent re-accumulation
2015 - ~300 days below
2019 - 2020 - 133 days below (Q1 2019) + 7 days (march 2020) below

Now: 138 of total (assumed) accumulation phase under RP so far, with about a month spent above in a mid-july to mid-august deviation above it and then few days again towards the end of the first half of september.

This can really come down to your own conviction about the macro. FED is pretty much the only QT left in town, they are laser focused on inflation and nothing short of bond market collapse prolly won't have them "pivot" so quick. 

TA/On-chain says accumulation, so does the F&G index, printed 2nd lowest point ever back in june, but RP = resistance until it isn't.

But that picture of angry Powell frowning upon "halloween effect" still could easily make the markets plummet...

Tread carefully! :)