Papi
BTC - Evolving Cycles
Bitcoin has over a decade of growth and maturity behind it. We should consider that "this time is different" isn't a meme, and take care in painting everything as "in 2018 or 2015 xx happened ... so in 2022 this will happen." While that -may- still happen, as a new asset class, Bitcoin is evolving. Some points to consider: 1. I think traditional halvening cycles are weakening. 2021 rising support is a reflection of the cycle's growing trust, adoption and maturity - TRADFI is active in the space now, and whales are more experienced- both trade on technicals, not emotions. 2. Reduced volatility was a theme of this cycle. Drawdowns and rises are weaker overall. You can use the bullish / bearish inversions of the 20w SMA and 21w EMA as a marker for bull and bear cycles- and observe a 17% shorter duration per cycle, to an almost quarterly rotation 3. Supply is overall net drawdown for years (over 20% drop in supply since 2019) after 7 years of growth. More HODLing despite volatility.