RugaResearch2026-11-11

Bitcoin’s 30-Day Demand Estimate Hits −348K BTC as Spot Improves

I went back to the spot and futures data after seeing Bitcoin’s combined 30-day demand estimate fall to −348K BTC on Nov 10, the weakest reading so far this month. What stood out was that spot had improved on every daily reading since Nov 7. Over those three days, the spot proxy improved by about 29.5K BTC. The perp estimate fell by about 63.5K BTC, more than twice as much. Both were still below zero. That’s why the chart stayed red even as spot started to improve. When BTC starts to build a range, this is one of the things I look for. Spot improving is worth paying attention to, especially if it continues on a retest of the lows. But as long as perps are deteriorating faster, the combined demand estimate is still getting weaker. Each new reading adds a day and drops the oldest one, so I’m watching how the 30-day window moves across several closes. What I want to see next is spot continuing toward zero and the drag from perps easing enough for the combined line to flatten. If that happens while price holds its lows, I’d take the idea of a range more seriously.