Andrew Kamsky2026-11-11

Bitcoin Trails November History as Diamond Bottom Takes Shape

Bitcoin ended October at about $77,500, roughly 7% lower than where the month started. October to November recap: 29 October: BTC dropped from $81,000 and finished October at $77,529. Early November: The slide continued to around $73,500, reaching two of the buy zones flagged in the last post. History: Past Novembers: By day ten, Bitcoin was usually up, around 3% on average. Ten of the last thirteen years were higher at this point. 2022, the only weaker start: The FTX collapse dragged BTC down about 23% by 9 November. It was still down around 14% on day ten. What came next: 2019 and 2025, the closest matches to 2026’s start, both finished November down about 17%. Chart Pattern: Pattern forming: A possible large diamond bottom is taking shape on the daily chart. A completed pattern would leave the lower areas (limits 3 and 4) untested and project a target equal to the diamond’s height, measured from the breakout point. The Deciding Level: Rising support: The lower trendline sits near $70.6K today and climbs toward $72K as the pattern matures. BTC needs to stay above the rising support line. Below the line: A weekly close below support would likely invalidate the diamond and open the way to the two untested limit areas from the prior post, near $70K and $64K, and possibly lower. Above the line: Holding above support keeps the structure intact. A break through resistance by 3 December would put $98K in view. Timing: Resolution window: The converging trendlines meet between December 3 and 15, when the pattern is expected to break up or down.