XWIN Japan
Bitcoin's Sharp Drop: Whale Exchange Inflows Rise as Leverage Risks Persist | XWIN
Bitcoin fell from above $75,600 to near $73,400 on November 9 before rebounding toward $75,500. By early November 10 (JST), it had slipped back near $74,600. Heavy long liquidations amplified the decline, while the recovery lacked sustained spot demand. The weakness stood out as US stocks rallied on lower oil prices. Bitcoin spot ETFs had posted $411.9 million in net outflows on November 6 and $1.28 billion for the week, highlighting fragile institutional demand. Some buying returned on Binance and OKX, but Coinbase reportedly remained seller-dominated. Today’s first CryptoQuant chart, Bitcoin: Exchange Whale Ratio (All Exchanges), measures the share of exchange BTC inflows accounted for by the ten largest deposits. Spikes above 0.4 have recurred since late October as BTC prices weakened. This suggests greater concentration of exchange deposits among large transactions, not proof that whales have sold. Custody transfers and collateral movements can also drive inflows. The second chart, Bitcoin: Estimated Leverage Ratio (All Exchanges), shows a rise from roughly 0.22–0.24 in mid-October to about 0.265 in early November, followed by a decline to 0.249. The drop is consistent with some leverage reduction after the sell-off, but the ratio remains elevated versus mid-October. It cannot establish how many long positions were liquidated. My view: the question is not simply whether BTC has found a price floor. It is whether genuine spot buyers can absorb potential exchange-side supply without depending on leveraged rebounds. Watch spot CVD, Coinbase Premium, ETF flows and further changes in leverage before calling a durable recovery.