thechessONCHAIN2026-11-09

Bitcoin Has 10 Historical Twins: 3 Ended Lower, 7 Ended Higher 90 Days Later

Is this 2022 again, or 2020? Bitcoin sits 39.25% below its $124,710 closing high, so I asked the data. I searched every day since 2012 for the ones that look most like November 6 on-chain: how far price sits below its high, how much profit holders are carrying, and whether recent buyers are selling at a gain or a loss. Seven CryptoQuant metrics in total, including MVRV and SOPR. Today: - MVRV Ratio: 1.405. The average coin is worth 40.5% more than it cost - Short-Term Holder SOPR (30-day average): 1.002. Recent buyers are selling at break-even The 10 closest twins, at least 120 days apart, and where price was 90 days later: Ended lower: - April 2022: -43.1% - September 2018: -41.0% - August 2014: -32.8% Ended higher: - February 2016: +5.4% - March 2023: +18.4% - August 2023: +20.0% - March 2020: +22.8%, after falling 39.0% first - August 2016: +23.6% - June 2012: +101.8% - September 2020: +132.1% History gives both answers. 2022 is one twin out of ten. 2020 is two, and both ended higher. That 7 to 3 split is about what Bitcoin does on any day: since 2012, it was higher 90 days later on 59.5% of all days. When the twins fell, they fell hard. The three that ended lower lost 32.8% to 43.1%, with drops of up to 52.3% inside those 90 days. 10 twins, 7 distinct years: a small sample. Anyone telling you "this is 2022" or "this is 2020" is picking a side. The data holds both.