XWIN Japan2026-11-04

Bitcoin Breaks $80K as Short Squeeze Fuels Rally—Can the Post-Midterm Rebound Last?

Bitcoin surged above $80,000 after falling to roughly $75,600 on Nov. 4, with reports of a move past $81,100. A wave of forced short covering accelerated the rebound: about $466 million in crypto positions were liquidated in one hour, 81% of them shorts ($378 million). The rally followed the U.S. midterm elections, in which Democrats won both chambers of Congress, raising prospects of divided government. Markets initially sold off on concerns over stalled crypto legislation, but uncertainty eased as results became clear. Recovering U.S. stocks and crowded bearish positions also helped fuel BTC’s sharp reversal. Still, spot demand remains unproven. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $399 million on Nov. 2 and $116 million on Nov. 3. CryptoQuant’s “True Market Mean Price + AVIV Ratio” suggests BTC has retreated toward its True Market Mean, signaling that earlier market overheating has eased. Key on-chain levels are near $77,700 (True Market Mean) and $75,700 (short-term holder cost basis). Only about 38% of short-term holders reportedly remain in profit. Regulatory uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act, potential restrictions on AI data centers, and renewed U.S.–Iran tensions could add pressure. In my view, reclaiming $80,000 is encouraging, but short liquidations alone cannot sustain a bull market. Watch whether BTC holds $80,000 and breaks $82,000, ETF flows turn positive, and spot/on-chain demand improves. If confirmed, $84,000–$85,500 is the next resistance zone. Otherwise, a retreat toward $77,700 is possible; a break below $75,700 would increase downside risk. The key question is whether fresh capital follows the squeeze.