BaykusCharts2026-11-03

U.S. Demand Is Missing From Bitcoin's Recovery

U.S. investors have been largely absent from the buy side of Bitcoin for almost a year. The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and on Binance. Since Coinbase is used primarily by U.S. investors and institutions, a positive reading indicates stronger buying pressure from the U.S. side, while a negative reading points to stronger selling. During the major rallies of 2024 and 2025, the index was mostly green. Since late 2025, however, it has remained almost continuously red. The negative stretch that began in the summer of 2026 is the longest on the chart. The index currently stands near -0.1, after dropping as low as -0.27 in recent days. The most notable detail is that the premium stayed negative even as Bitcoin climbed from the $60K range to around $87K in September. In other words, that recovery was not driven by U.S. buyers; demand came from elsewhere. A negative premium does not always mean further downside. In late 2022, during the FTX collapse, the index was deeply negative, and that period coincided with the cycle bottom. U.S. investors who sold near the lows later returned as buyers. The key signal to watch is whether the index moves sustainably back above zero. Until U.S. demand returns, the durability of any rally will remain in question. The price looks the same on every screen. Who is buying shows up in the premium.