CoinNiel2026-11-01

Bitcoin: Strong Outflows, Mixed Signals

Bitcoin’s exchange outflows look constructive, but the data through October 31 does not yet confirm a bullish reversal. Exchanges recorded 30,435 BTC in net outflows during October 25–31, versus 3,434 BTC in net inflows the previous week. However, 23,790 BTC left on October 29 alone, so sustained accumulation remains unconfirmed. Average funding rose from 0.0061% to 0.0075% over the same weekly comparison. Longs continue paying shorts, although these readings alone do not establish overheating. Open interest increased 3.3%, from $25.1 billion on October 25 to $26.0 billion on October 31. Its weekly average was still 0.2% below the previous week, suggesting a recent recovery rather than broad, rapid expansion. As a supplementary valuation indicator, MVRV fell from 1.56 at September’s end to 1.43 on October 31. The valuation premium has narrowed, but this alone does not confirm undervaluation or a bottom. I remain neutral. Persistent outflows alongside cooling funding would strengthen the bullish case, while renewed inflows combined with rising funding and open interest would increase my caution. Exchange flows have improved. Derivatives signals remain mixed. Confirmation matters more than any single reading. Tomorrow, I’ll check whether outflows persist once November 1 data is finalized, whether funding cools as open interest stabilizes, and how the next MVRV reading develops.