XWIN Japan
Bitcoin After the Binance Hack and U.S. Midterms: Three Conditions for a Lasting Rebound [XWIN]
As of November 1, 2026, Bitcoin trades around $77,000. XWIN expects volatile consolidation over the next two to six weeks, with downside risks still prominent. Binance says it has replenished about 95% of affected assets, and BTC withdrawals have resumed. Continued access matters for restoring confidence. Outflows alone do not prove selling, as users may move coins into self-custody. Demand remains fragile. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $643.2 million in net outflows on October 30, following a $635.6 million outflow on October 22, before the hack. For the midterms, surprises relative to expectations may matter more than the winner alone. An accepted result could ease uncertainty; prolonged disputes could deter buyers. Oil-driven inflation and high interest rates remain headwinds. CryptoQuant's Apparent Demand Growth chart shows the one-year measure deeply negative, with the 30-day reading also below zero. The metric estimates demand from new issuance and changes in BTC supply inactive for over a year. Autumn's price recovery has lacked clear confirmation from demand. Our base scenario is $72,000-$82,000 as demand recovers slowly. Restored confidence and sustained ETF inflows could support $82,000-$90,000. Contagion, outflows or worsening geopolitical risks could bring $65,000-$72,000 into view. These are conditional scenarios; the chart's projected demand paths illustrate direction, not BTC quantities. I would become more positive after three signals: stable Binance withdrawals, a positive five-day net flow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and stronger spot buying without overheated futures. A sustained positive 30-day apparent demand reading would add confirmation. I will watch whether pullbacks make higher lows alongside improving flows.