theophiluspep2026-10-31

Bitcoin’s Halloween Stress Test: Recent Buyers Capitulate as the 1–3 Month Cost Basis Holds

As of 31 October 2026, Bitcoin trades around $77.3K–$77.5K following a sharp multi-day pullback. On-chain data highlights a clear pressure point among the newest market participants. Within a single 24-hour window, short-term holders (STHs) transferred more than 36,600 BTC to exchanges at a realised loss. This marked the month's highest STH loss-driven deposit activity and the first sustained negative STH net P/L-to-exchanges reading in over two months. The seven-day sum of STH inflows also reached its highest level in October, confirming that recent buyers are facing the greatest pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading just above the realised price of the 1–3 month UTXO age band, currently around $76.4K–$76.5K. This cost-basis level has risen steadily throughout the recent rally and now represents a key support zone. The broader STH realised price sits slightly lower, at approximately $75.8K. Unrealised gains across these cohorts have compressed to roughly 1–2%. This creates a narrow cushion. Holding above the 1–3 month realised price keeps this recent cohort marginally profitable and may limit forced selling. A sustained break below it would push a significant group of recent buyers into aggregate unrealised losses, potentially extending selling pressure if spot demand fails to emerge. Overall SOPR remains near breakeven, while LTH-SOPR has eased towards 1.01, suggesting that long-term holders are not yet the primary source of selling pressure. Exchange netflows have alternated between modest outflows and inflows, leaving the broader supply picture mixed. The immediate test is whether the $76.4K–$76.5K cost-basis zone can absorb ongoing STH loss-taking without further acceleration in exchange deposits. A successful defence would suggest that the market is digesting recent speculative capital rather than entering a broader distribution phase.