ShayanMarkets2026-10-31

Bitcoin Risks Deeper Correction if $76K Holder Cost Basis Breaks

The Realized Price UTXO Age Bands chart tracks the average on-chain cost basis of coins grouped by age. The latest decline has brought Bitcoin near the realized price of the 1-to-3-month cohort, which has risen sharply toward approximately $76K–$76.5K. With the market price around $77.3K, these recent holders are approaching aggregate breakeven. This creates an important confluence with the technical demand zone around $75K–$78K. A successful defense could help stabilize sentiment among this cohort, while a sustained move below its cost basis would place it in aggregate unrealized loss and could increase pressure on more sensitive holders. Meanwhile, the 6-to-12-month cohort’s realized price has declined toward $84K–$85K and remains above spot. This region could become an additional recovery hurdle if holders use a return toward breakeven to reduce exposure. For now, the approaching $76K–$76.5K cost basis is the more immediate reference point. Its interaction with price could help distinguish a temporary correction into demand from a deeper deterioration, although realized price alone does not guarantee support.