MorenoDV_
Ethereum’s Recovery Faces a Cost-Basis Test
ETH’s return to realized price puts the durability of its recent recovery under scrutiny. Ethereum has returned to its aggregate on-chain cost basis, with MVRV slipping slightly below 1. The recent rebound’s unrealized profit cushion has largely disappeared, leaving ETH at a sensitive point in its recovery. Realized price approximates the supply’s aggregate on-chain cost. Trading below it places market valuation beneath that estimated cost basis, revealing renewed profitability stress. Identifying capitulation would require additional evidence of loss realization and selling pressure. The historical comparisons show why this threshold needs context. Tests around MVRV 1 in September 2024 and June 2025 preceded recoveries. In April–May 2026, however, an attempt to reclaim the same threshold from below failed, followed by a deeper decline. The direction of the approach matters. ETH is now returning from above, surrendering the profitability regained during its rebound. Demand must absorb available supply for the market to rebuild a sustained premium over realized price. A sustained reclaim would strengthen the recovery thesis. Continued trading below realized price, particularly with repeated rejections on rebounds, would point to persistent weakness and raise the risk of a prolonged loss regime. For now, the evidence points to a fragile rebound and renewed cost-basis pressure. Capitulation or seller exhaustion would require confirmation from realized losses, selling activity and spot demand.