BaykusCharts2026-10-28

Profitable, but Far From Euphoric

At around $81K, Bitcoin is still recovering from its drawdown to roughly $60K earlier this year and remains well below its all-time high. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric helps put this recovery into perspective. NUPL currently stands at approximately 0.3, placing the market in the "Optimism/Anxiety" zone. In simple terms, the network as a whole is in profit, but unrealized gains are modest compared to previous periods of market strength. Historically, extreme overheating has been associated with NUPL readings above 0.7, the "Euphoria/Greed" zone, as seen in the 2017 and 2021 cycle tops. However, the most recent cycle peaked at lower levels, around 0.6, without entering that zone. This suggests that the euphoria threshold may be less reliable as a cycle-top signal than it once was. What a reading of 0.3 does indicate is that profit-taking pressure is likely to remain limited for now. Investors are not sitting on large enough gains to create the kind of widespread selling seen near cycle peaks. At the same time, a meaningful share of recent buyers entered between $60K and $80K, so their profitability remains sensitive to price swings in this range. Key levels to watch: a sustained move above 0.5 would signal growing optimism and rising profit-taking incentives, while a drop back toward 0.25 or below would indicate that the market is returning to anxiety. NUPL does not predict price direction, but it shows how much room the market has before profit-taking becomes a dominant force.