XWIN Japan
Bitcoin Is Building a Bottom — But Spot Demand Is Still Weak
Bitcoin’s on-chain data is showing an interesting divergence between whales and the spot market. Large holders with 1,000–10,000 BTC have shifted their 60-day net accumulation from −62,600 BTC to +5,230 BTC, suggesting that major whales are moving from distribution back toward accumulation. At the same time, Binance’s USDT reserves have increased from roughly $790 million to $1.76 billion, indicating more potential buying power on exchanges. However, U.S. spot demand remains weak. The Coinbase Premium Index is around −0.1416%, while weekly exchange flows have turned into a net inflow of 8,428 BTC. STH-SOPR is also near 0.9982, showing that short-term holders are still realizing small losses around breakeven. My view: the market is progressing from “fewer sellers” toward a possible bottom, but a sustained rally still needs stronger spot demand. The key signals to watch next are Coinbase Premium, exchange netflows, and STH-SOPR holding above 1.