CoinNiel2026-10-18

Bitcoin On-Chain Update: Net Exchange Inflows Call for Caution

The data provided for October 18 suggests caution, with exchange flows turning positive and short-term holders repeatedly realizing small losses. Exchange flows shifted from net outflows of approximately 5,285 BTC during October 4–10 to net inflows of 8,428 BTC during October 11–17. The October 18 row shows net outflows of around 485 BTC, but its daily aggregation is unconfirmed, so a reversal remains uncertain. Funding stayed positive throughout the latest seven days, although its average fell 4.75% from the previous seven days. Long positions continued paying funding, but the average cost did not increase. Average open interest fell 1.61% between the two periods. However, the October 17 reading was 0.30% above October 10, leaving it nearly unchanged between those dates; without price data, we cannot determine whether liquidations drove the changes. As a supplementary indicator, short-term holder SOPR stood at 0.9982 on October 17, its latest observation, and remained below 1 on five of the preceding seven days. Small realized losses occurred repeatedly, but this alone does not establish a market bottom. I interpret this combination as neutral with a cautious bias. Sustained net outflows and SOPR recovering above 1 would ease that caution, while larger net inflows alongside rising funding and OI would strengthen it. Weekly exchange flows turned to net inflows. Average funding and OI declined slightly. Short-term holders repeatedly realized losses. Tomorrow, I will check whether net outflows persist once the October 18 data is complete and whether funding and OI rise together. I will also watch whether the next short-term holder SOPR reading recovers above 1.