CoinNiel2026-10-01

Bitcoin Outflows Rise, but Coinbase Demand Stays Weak

Exchange outflows are supportive, but weak Coinbase buying pressure keeps my BTC outlook neutral. From September 24–30, exchanges recorded net outflows on six of seven days, totaling approximately 18,195 BTC. This may reduce available supply, but does not prove new buying or long-term accumulation. The Coinbase Premium remained negative for 26 consecutive days, reaching -0.08067% on September 30 versus -0.03017% the previous day. Relative buying pressure on Coinbase remains weak. Open interest fell 7.6%, from $27.03 billion on September 23 to $24.98 billion on September 30. Without price data, we cannot separate position reductions from changes in their dollar value. Average funding declined to 0.00498% over September 24–30, compared with 0.00777% the previous week. Longs still paid shorts, but the average funding burden eased. The provisional October 1 figures show open interest rising 2.4% to $25.59 billion and funding increasing to 0.00770%. These readings require confirmation, but suggest renewed derivatives activity. I would become more constructive if the Coinbase Premium turns positive while exchange outflows continue. Persistent negative premiums, combined with net inflows and rising funding and open interest, would shift my assessment toward greater risk. Exchange flows remain favorable. Coinbase buying pressure has yet to recover. Derivatives indicators eased over the completed period, but their provisional rebound deserves attention. Tomorrow, I will check the finalized October 1 readings, the latest Coinbase Premium, and whether funding and open interest keep rising without stronger spot demand.