RugaResearch2026-10-01

USDT 60-Day Supply Change Crosses Zero at +$505M After a -$5.7B July Low

Stablecoin supply is coming back, at least on the USDT side. The 60-day change in USDT market cap closed September at +$505M, the first reading above zero in over three months. On a plain monthly basis, USDT added about $450M in September. The cross itself needs a footnote. Of the $541M the 60-day change gained in its last three days, only about $17M was new minting. The rest came from the heavy early-August burns rolling out of the window. So the zero line is partly arithmetic. The trend underneath is what I'm looking at. The raw reading bottomed at -$5.7B on July 13, and its 30-day average hit the floor on July 29 at -$5.4B. That was peak pain for this indicator. The average has risen every single day since and sits at -$564M today. BTC went from around $64K to $83.7K over that same stretch while the 60-day change stayed negative the entire way. This leg up happened without stablecoin growth behind it. If minting keeps going, that's a source of liquidity the trend hasn't had yet, and it gives me hope for continuation. It's still modest. $450M in a month is small against a $5.7B hole. The line I'm watching is the 30-day average crossing zero.