XWIN Japan2026-09-27

Bitcoin’s Crucial Week: U.S. Data, the Fed and October Rates

From September 28 to October 2, 2026, U.S. data could reshape expectations for the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting. Tuesday brings August JOLTS job openings (10 a.m. ET / 11 p.m. JST). Wednesday brings August PCE inflation and final Q2 GDP (8:30 a.m. ET / 9:30 p.m. JST). September ISM manufacturing follows Thursday (10 a.m. ET / 11 p.m. JST), and September jobs data arrive Friday (8:30 a.m. ET / 9:30 p.m. JST). Oil prices and Iran-related developments remain in focus throughout the week. After September’s rate hike to 3.75–4.00%, the Fed faces resilient growth and inflation above its 2% target. Chair Kevin Warsh stresses persistent inflation trends over a single reading and avoids promising a future rate path. President Trump, who nominated him, has called for rates of 1% or less. Yet the September hike passed unanimously. Hot inflation and firm hiring could lift rate expectations, Treasury yields and the dollar, weighing on Bitcoin. Softer inflation and a gradual jobs slowdown could help, but a sharp labor-market slump may fuel recession fears. Higher oil prices add another risk. Watch the gap between forecasts and actual data, then yields, the dollar, spot Bitcoin ETF flows and futures positioning. October is not settled: September CPI is due October 14.