Facundo Fama
Ethereum: Same Price, Different Market Structure
• Market ETH has returned to $2.5K, the same price reached in May 2025, but the market structure is now considerably different. Exchange reserves are lower, staking has increased, institutional fund holdings are significantly higher, and open interest has declined. In other words, ETH is trading at the same price with less immediately sellable supply on centralized exchanges, less leverage in the derivatives market, stronger institutional participation, and a larger share of its supply committed to staking. Taken together, these factors show a structurally stronger market setup than in May 2025. 1) Fund Holdings Demand through institutional vehicles increased significantly. Total ETH held by ETFs rose 72%, while BlackRock’s ETHA holdings surged nearly 170%. It is important to highlight that BlackRock now has two Ethereum ETFs: ETHA, its original spot ETF, and a separate iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB) that provides staking exposure. 2) CEX Data Exchange reserves are 28% lower than in May 2025. This means that substantially less ETH is currently held on centralized exchanges and potentially available for sale through these platforms. 3) Staking and Supply The amount of ETH staked increased 23%, while total supply remained relatively stable, showing that staking expanded considerably faster than Ethereum's overall supply. Of the total ETH currently in circulation, 34% is now staked (up from 28% in May 2025). This reflects strong participation in Ethereum's staking ecosystem. 4) Derivatives Open interest is 10% lower than in May 2025 despite ETH trading at the same $2.5K level. In the context of lower exchange reserves, higher staking, and significantly larger institutional holdings, I read this decline as healthier deleveraging rather than simply fading interest, leaving the market with less derivatives leverage and lower liquidation risk than during the previous $2.5K recovery.