COINDREAM2026-09-15

Bitcoin: Leverage Eases, but Futures Buying Momentum Fades

1. Lower leverage pressure Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio has declined from around 0.22 in August to below 0.20, indicating lower open interest relative to exchange reserves. This suggests easing leverage pressure. However, the ratio also responds to changes in reserves, so its decline alone cannot confirm liquidations or long unwinding. It remains above February’s lows and does not establish a market bottom. 2. Futures buy dominance returns to neutral The 90-day Futures Taker CVD chart shows that the buy-dominant phase seen from late August has recently shifted back to neutral. This suggests that the aggressive buying advantage accompanying the rebound has weakened. Neutral does not mean sell-dominant. Still, the loss of buy dominance raises questions about whether futures demand can sustain further upside. The January–February period also shows that prices can fall during a buy-dominant regime. Aggressive futures buying alone does not guarantee higher prices. 3. The next demand signal matters Together, these charts point to easing leverage pressure alongside a fading futures buy-side edge. Neither a confirmed bullish reset nor a decisive bearish reversal is established. The next test is whether price holds as leverage stabilizes and whether futures buying regains dominance. Price weakness accompanied by a shift to sell dominance would strengthen the case for deteriorating demand. Ultimately, sustained upside requires demand that can support price after leverage cools. These two charts do not directly measure spot demand; spot CVD and volume are needed to assess the durability of the move.