thechessONCHAIN
Bitcoin's Hashrate Fell During a Rally for the Second Time Since 2012. The First Was April 2025.
Between June 28 and August 27, Bitcoin's price rose 34.9% while network hashrate fell about 10% on a 7-day average. Since 2009, 32 episodes saw BTC gain 30% or more in 60 days. Hashrate fell in three: October 2012, April 2025, and now. Two things keep this honest: - All three sit among the five weakest rallies of the 32, and raising the bar to 40% removes all three. Move the window to 45 or 90 days and this episode drops out too. - October 2012 is not comparable: the first halving landed inside that window, on November 28, cutting the subsidy mid-episode. The two post-2020 cases are the second and third softest rallies of the 11 since 2020. The softest, July 2020, saw hashrate rise 5.2%. With N of 2, the readings still cannot be separated. The simple revenue explanation does not fit. The Puell Multiple, which compares daily coin issuance in dollars to its own 365-day average, rose 28.0% on the same 7-day smoothing, from 0.732 to 0.937. Issuance climbed while hashpower left. It stayed below 1.0 on 60 of the 61 days, so revenue was not generous. Daily hashrate is block-variance noise: on raw data the sign flips to +6.4%. The 7-day window was fixed before the test. Moving the anchor three days moves the figure between 5.5% and 11.8%. The test is hashrate itself, not difficulty, which only echoes it two weeks late. The 7-day average regained its starting level 9 days after the 2012 episode. Three days have passed here, so this remains normal. If it has not recovered by September 5, it sits outside the 2012 precedent.