AxelAdlerJr
Bitcoin is in an accumulation zone, but the bottom has not yet been confirmed
The Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio has fallen to 0.031, placing it in the 3rd percentile of the current halving cycle. In simple terms, the indicator is lower than on 97% of days since April 2024. This is a zone of deep market stress: the balance between supply in profit and supply in loss has deteriorated sharply, while participant confidence remains low. Bitcoin is trading at around $62K, nearly 50% below its October 2025 peak. The indicator has remained below the 25th percentile since late January, while its average over the past two months has stayed below 5%. This points to a prolonged phase of market compression and repricing. Historically, such zones have appeared during the late stages of bear markets. This improves the long-term risk-reward profile, but it does not mean a local bottom has already formed. In 2018-2019 and 2022-2023, the indicator remained near its lower boundary for months while the price continued to move within a wide range and periodically set new lows.