CryptoOnchain2026-08-02

Bitcoin — Long-Dormant Supply Reappears as a Miner Stress Flag Turns On

Bitcoin closed at $62,763 on August 1, the lowest print in the two-week window and roughly 5.7% below the $66,520 high set on July 21. The price drift is modest. More notable is the supply composition beneath it. Over the past week, inflows of coins aged 2–7 years rose sharply versus their quarterly baselines — the 3y–5y band up about 595% and the 5y–7y band about 1,016%. Spending showed the same pattern: 2y–3y and 3y–5y cohorts rose roughly 404% and 375%, equal to about $315M and $216M in realized value. These are small absolute figures from a low base, so the percentages overstate scale, but the direction is consistent across age bands. The destination forms the second layer. Coinbase absorbed a disproportionate share: netflow rose roughly 1,423% versus its 90-day baseline, with 3y–5y inflows up about 1,014%. Binance, by contrast, saw steadier inflows — positive on 10 of the last 14 days, peaking at +3,289 BTC on July 31 — suggesting the aged-coin rotation may be venue-specific rather than broad-based selling. A third piece sits alongside: the miner shutdown indicator has moved to 1, up 50% versus its monthly and 350% versus its quarterly baseline, pointing to marginal hash capacity operating below breakeven. Older-holder distribution alongside miner margin compression has historically been more common in later-stage corrections than early trend reversals. The derivatives backdrop remains quiet, with Binance funding flat at 0.00–0.01, while the Coinbase Premium stayed between -0.09 and -0.14, its weakest stretch in two weeks. Taken together, long-held supply is being released into a venue where US spot demand appears weak, without leverage amplifying the move. Historically, this mix has preceded extended consolidation more often than sharp breaks. The key variable now is whether aged-coin inflows fade or the Coinbase Premium strengthens enough to absorb them.