AbstractRyu2026-08-01

Is a low SSR really dry powder? — Adjusted, SSR is 28.1 not 11.5 (2/4)

The previous post established that only 40.7% of the SSR denominator sits on exchanges. The natural follow-up: what does SSR look like if the denominator is narrowed to that portion alone? No new data is needed for that — two existing official metrics do the work. The first is Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), BTC market cap divided by total stablecoin supply. The second is Stablecoin Exchange Supply Ratio, the share of that supply sitting in exchange wallets, currently 0.407. Dividing the first by the second cancels the off-exchange portion out of the denominator and leaves BTC market cap over exchange-held stablecoins alone: 11.5 / 0.407 = 28.1. That is the red line in panel 2 of the chart. The gap between the two lines is the over-counting SSR carries by construction, and it is not a constant — it widens and narrows as the exchange supply ratio moves. The practical consequence: reported SSR can range sideways while the adjusted series trends, because the denominator is being redistributed underneath a total that barely changes. Over the window shown, the exchange share drifted from roughly 0.48 to 0.41 and the adjusted line climbed while the reported line stayed comparatively flat. One caution. The familiar SSR thresholds were calibrated on the reported series; carrying those same numbers over to the adjusted series misreads it by the full 2.4x. Next: two biases that stay even after the denominator is fixed.