Rei Researcher
$BTC has yet to confirm a cycle bottom.
When normalizing the path from the Halving to the cycle bottom, the 2024 cycle remains ahead of the bottoming windows seen in 2016 and 2020. What matters here is not just timing, but market psychology: the market is exhausted, yet it has not reached full capitulation. For now, the cycle data only suggests that downside risk remains. It is still too early to conclude that a bottom has formed. Don’t confuse “the price has fallen significantly” with “the market has bottomed.”