thechessONCHAIN2026-07-24

57.5% of Bitcoin's Supply Is Back in Profit. Every Bear Market Exit Since 2012 Needed at Least 64%.

Bitcoin's Supply in Profit (%), the share of bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price, has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low. The recovery is real: - In about three weeks, more than one in ten bitcoins swung from loss back into profit, with BTC up 7% in 30 days to around $65,100. - Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio; 1.0 means coins move at break-even) sits at 0.9997: the coins recent buyers are moving get spent at break-even. History sets a higher bar. Using one regime marker, the 30-day average of Long-Term Holder SOPR (calculated from CryptoQuant's daily data) durably reclaiming 1.0, the last four bear markets ended in: - April 2012: Supply in Profit at 69% - November 2015: 64% - May 2019: 83% - April 2023: 77% Every real exit came with a profit cushion of roughly 64% or more. - This cycle already produced one failed attempt: from April 28 to June 1 the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, Supply in Profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over. - Today that average sits at 0.86, below 1.0 for 51 straight days. Who is selling: the caveat. - Coins older than six months spiked to 12-16% of exchange inflows in early July, right as the bounce began, then faded to 0.8% this past week versus 5.6% the month before. - Old hands fed exchanges on the first leg; that flow has dried up. - The overhang sits in the middle: cohorts that bought between one month and two years ago, with cost basis (their average acquisition price) between roughly $72K and $101K, remain underwater. Until Supply in Profit clears the mid-60s and a reclaim outlasts April's 35 days, probabilities favor a recovery inside a bear regime, not a confirmed exit.